Some perspective on the grim situation in Ukraine and what could happen in markets.
The invasion of Ukraine is a serious and scary escalation in tensions between Russia, Europe, and the United States.
Before we dive in to what it could mean, let’s take a moment to think about the many folks who are suffering and dying as well as the ordinary Russians who will suffer from sanctions, instability, and economic damage.
We hope and pray that diplomacy can end this crisis for all our sakes.
Let’s talk about some possible implications for markets and our economy.
Given Ukraine’s critical pipelines and Western sanctions on Russia, the crisis may lead to higher energy prices, which will trickle down to higher pump and heating fuel costs.1
Sustained price increases could hamper the Federal Reserve’s effort to control inflation, so we’re keeping an eye on that as well.
What could happen in markets?
Extreme volatility, as we’ve already experienced, is very likely. Another correction (or even a bear market) is definitely possible.
What does history teach us about market reactions to geopolitical shocks?
History shows that stocks usually recover quickly from geopolitical crises.
We’ll add a disclaimer that the future doesn’t perfectly match the past — but it often rhymes.
Let’s take a look at some examples from other invasions and wars.2
Here’s the key takeaway: short-term, markets usually react badly. However, a year later, markets have historically recovered.
Will they always? In every case? That’s impossible to say.
But, the study of 29 geopolitical events since WWII shows a general trend toward short-term losses in the first weeks and longer-term gains over months.2
A note: “geopolitical event” is a very antiseptic phrase for horrible things like bombings, wars, invasions, attacks, and really fails to encompass the full cost in human misery.
We can’t know or control what happens next. But we can focus on what’s in our control: Ourselves, our actions and reactions, and our strategies for uncertain times.
P.S. Looking for ways to donate to Ukrainians? Here’s a roundup of some organizations doing good work.
1 – https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/business/oil-prices-russia-ukraine.html
Risk Disclosure: Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability, or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. For illustrative use only.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500®) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. Indexes are not available for direct investment. The performance of the index excludes any taxes, fees, and expenses.
Advisory services offered through Wilon Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Adviser Firm.
